Mexico chicken imports forecast to increase by 5% in 2024 – GAIN

Although at a slower rate of growth compared to the last two years, imports are forecast to increase by 5% in 2024, driven by robust domestic demand, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report. 

Imports are forecast 5% higher from 2023 at 1.0 MMT. Forecast imports are nearly 20% of total domestic chicken meat consumption, comparable to previous years. 

Strong domestic demand and price competitiveness of chicken meat compared to pork and beef will support increased import volumes. While the overall outlook for chicken imports remains strong, the slower rate of growth compared to the last two years is based on relatively less forecast GDP growth and forecast depreciation of the “super peso” which strengthened Mexico’s import outlook since late 2022. 

Despite less than expected economic growth, chicken meat imports are forecast to increase, albeit at a slower pace, based on declining poultry prices, decreased inflation, and increased household incomes. 

Based on updated trade data, 2023 imports are estimated 7% higher than 2022 at 975,000 MT. A record level appreciation to Mexico’s peso, relative to the United States dollar, strengthens the poultry import outlook. 

The United States remains Mexico’s top poultry trading partner, despite an estimated increase in imports from Brazil. More labour-intensive poultry cut imports from Brazil, at competitive pricing, have increased over the last ten years. In 2022, close to seventy percent of Brazilian poultry imports were deboned chicken breast meat.