Chicken meat exports forecast unchanged for Mexico in 2024 – GAIN

Exports for 2023 are 60% lower than in 2022

As a result of more stable trading partner chicken meat supplies, 2024 chicken meat exports are forecast unchanged for Mexico, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report. 

Mexico is currently the sixth largest chicken meat producer globally and meets close to 80% of domestic chicken meat consumption. Over the last 10 years, domestic chicken meat production has grown more than 30%. 

While imports expanded 45% during the same period, they have continued to account for 20% of domestic consumption, indicating that growth in imports will continue to be tied to and constrained by overall consumption growth. 

Mexico’s competitiveness as a poultry producer is driven by the availability of local labour and access to a price-competitive supply of abundant feed grains and oilseeds, co-products such as distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS), and other inputs including poultry genetics from the United States.

Exports are forecast unchanged from 2024 at 5,000 MT. Robust demand from domestic consumers and unchanged forecast demand from export markets are expected to hold exports stable. Although industry aims to increase chicken meat exports, including to capture halal meat markets, over the last 10 years less than 1% of chicken meat production has been destined for exports.

Exports are forecast at 5,000 MT in 2023, 60% lower than in 2022. Mexico trade data shows limited shipments in the first half of the year and U.S. demand is expected to remain weak for the remainder of 2023. Mexico’s exports to the United States were stronger in 2022 as demand rose from the impact of HPAI.