Growth forecasts adjusted for Brazilian chicken, pork exports

In contrast, strong domestic demand for eggs earlier in recent months reduced the volume available for export.

While earlier forecasts for Brazilian chicken meat production and exports in 2024 have been revised downwards slightly, this year is still expected to break previous records.

Year-on-year expansion now looks to be 1.8% at 15.10 million metric tons (mmt), according to the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein, ABPA. For 2025, it expects national output to be up by a further 2.3% at 15.35mmt.

Domestic consumption is forecast to remain steady at 45kg per person and year in 2024. This could lift by 1kg in 2025, according to this source.

Compared with last year, ABPA sees chicken meat exports 2.2% higher at 5.25mmt in 2024. Trade could expand the following year by a further 100,000 metric tons (mt), it says.

According to ABPA president Ricardo Santin, both national production and exports still look likely to break previous records in 2024. He attributes this to a general improvement in conditions for poultry farming in Brazil in recent months. 

He also referred to an earlier outbreak of Newcastle disease, which he described as an isolated case that has since been resolved.  

Record pork exports in prospect

With a recent reduction in exports from the European Union, Brazil has been gaining ground in terms of global pig meat exports, according to ABPA markets director Luis Rua. Furthermore, he said, new markets have been opened up for Brazilian pork, while others have raised volumes. 

Latest forecast for national production in 2024 is for a 1% year-on-year expansion to 5.20mmt, and a further increase at the same rate to 5.25mmt in 2025. Annual domestic per-capita consumption is expected to remain stable at 18kg both this year and next. 

Brazil’s pork exports are forecast by ABPA to strengthen significantly this year. Compared with 2023, volume could be up by as much as 7.7% this year, approaching 1.33mmt. If achieved, this would represent record trade for this sector. Further annual growth of 3.8% towards 1.38mmt is indicated for 2025. 

Strong growth recorded in Brazilian egg production

Driven by a projected 8.5% year-on-year increase in egg consumption on the home market this year, ABPA is now forecasting a similar rate of growth in Brazilian production to 56.9 billion for 2024.

While expansion is expected to fall back in 2025, the association is forecasting a further 1% rise to 57.5 billion.

In contrast to the trends for chicken meat and pork, the nation’s egg exports could contract by as much as 20% this year to 20,000mt. However, ABPA expects a rebound in 2025, with a 10% annual increase to 22,000mt.

According to Santin, export momentum was lost during the first six months of 2024. Over this period, domestic egg sales were particularly strong, leading ABPA to forecast record domestic egg consumption this year.