Paraguayan beef exports forecast down in 2025

Export to the US and Canada could increase demand

Paraguayan beef exports in 2025 are forecast down at 450,000 tons carcass weight equivalent with an expected smaller beef supply after a very large slaughter in 2024, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.

A severe drought in the western region forced many producers to send a greater number of cattle to market than previously planned. Local traders believe exports to the recently opened markets of the United States and Canada could increase as a result of the current strong demand in those markets. 

Paraguay is expected to be eligible to ship to Mexico sometime in 2025.

Beef production in Paraguay in 2025 is forecast to drop at 560,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (cwe) due to a decline in slaughter assuming a more normal weather pattern in 2025 following three straight years of drought. 

A very dry 2024 forced many producers to sell more cattle than planned to have a lighter stocking rate as the production of pastures was very limited. If rains return to normal patterns the slaughter will total 2.3 million head, almost 150,000 head less than that estimated for 2024. The average carcass weight in 2025 is forecast up at 244 kilos, 3 kilos heavier than in 2024, because a smaller number of cows in slaughter and a larger number of cattle finished on grains.

The local cattle business is going through a difficult situation due to a combination of 3-4 years of dry and hot weather, low cattle prices and increasing costs. Producers claim that cattle prices barely cover production costs and that dry conditions have affected producers’ efficiency. 

The below map shows the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and its departure from average through early September 2024. Most of the western part of Paraguay (Chaco Region) continues to be severely affected by drought. Circled in red are Alto Paraguay and Boqueron, the two Departments mostly affected where most of the late investment in new ranches took place. 

A larger number of cattle than normal were moved out from these two departments directly to slaughter or to other areas with better pasture conditions.